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How the electricity market is reacting to the new restrictions?

How the electricity market is reacting to the new restrictions?

During the first week of October, the electricity demand registered a 0.9% decline in Spain. This trend continued during the second and third weeks, the latter registering a 6.3% drop compared to the same days of the previous week. However, electricity demand in mainland Spain recovered at the end of the month, increasing it by 8.7% compared to the previous week, mainly due to the drop in temperature. The energy demand of the Spanish market is expected to conclude with values ​​much higher than those registered at the beginning of the month.

On the other hand, we can see how the average price of the pool has maintained a continuous trend from the beginning of the month (when it registered a value of € 41.5 / MWh) to the present. The daily price has varied strongly depending on the wind capacity that enters. For its part, the price of CO2 has experienced a slight decrease compared to September.


Regarding the futures market, the market has been slightly bearish (the cal-21 has left 0.8 € / MWh since October 23) and even continued with respect to the previous month. In terms of product volumes managed per year, good liquidity is maintained in Cal-21, which is almost imminent, but in the last week there are no operations in other terms.

Regarding solar production, the Spanish market started the month with a slight increase of 1.8%, registering a cumulative increase of 42% in the first fortnight of the month compared to the same days in 2019. The average solar production in Spain decreased 48% between Monday and Wednesday of the week of October 19 compared to the previous week. At a year-on-year level, production with this technology between October 1 and 21 increased by 50%.

Despite registering significant intra-weekly fluctuations, the approval of the new state of alarm and the threat of new house confinements, the electricity market is tending to a relatively normal behavior, with typical market fluctuations and prices consistent with recent months.

Sonia Moya
Sonia Moya
Investment Associate

Investment associate specializing in the renewable energy sector at RIC Energy Group. She previously participated in the Deals graduate program at PwC. Experience in Strategy, Corporate Finance and Transactions. Member of the Madrid Bar Association. Analytical and financial modeling skills with a notable track record in medium-sized projects. LINKEDIN • EMAIL

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